GB Flexibility Dashboard
Phase 1 Baseline Assessment
Capacity (GW)
Data coverage (contributors)
Where fewer than 3 contributors supply a metric, values are shown as ranges to protect confidentiality.
Energy (GWh)
Flexibility Breakdown
Key Findings
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Understanding Turn-Up vs Turn-Down
When Time-of-Use tariffs are included, turn-up capacity appears higher because customers shift load into off-peak periods. This reflects demand flexibility, not new generation. Managed assets are predominantly turn-down (demand reduction).
Turn-Up vs Turn-Down
Turn-up dominated by ToU load shifting; turn-down by managed DSR.
Explicit vs Implicit Flexibility
Explicit = contracted, Implicit = price-responsive behavior.
Energy Flexibility Breakdown (GWh)
Energy metrics derived from contributing aggregators and ToU tariff providers.
Market Context
Represents significant penetration of the domestic smart charging market. Public chargers (~82k) are additional infrastructure.
Rapid market growth means this baseline will need regular updates to remain current.
- Partial coverage: Based on a limited number of contributors; not a full-market total.
- Capacity definition: MW reflects average daily coincident, deduplicated, peak deliverable capacity (Template section 3.2).
- Missing MW submissions: Where MW is not provided, capacity is treated as missing rather than inferred from asset counts.
- Double counting risk: Contributors were asked to use conservative values where assets overlap across markets; residual overlap may remain.
- Route-to-market coverage: Benchmarks like CM do not cover DFS, many DSO tenders, BM/ancillary services, bilateral routes, or most domestic propositions.
Flexibility by Sector
Flexibility by Asset Group
Asset classes are grouped to improve confidentiality where fewer than 3 contributors provide MW values.
Asset portfolio by group (counts)
Counts reflect contributor-reported portfolio sizes (Template Part 2). Ranges are used where disclosure rules apply.
Domestic Flexibility
Residential flexible assets
Domestic Asset Breakdown
About Domestic Flexibility
Domestic flexibility includes smart EV chargers, heat pumps, home batteries, and smart appliances in residential properties. These assets can shift their electricity consumption in response to price signals or grid needs.
Industrial & Commercial Flexibility
Non-domestic flexible assets
I&C Asset Breakdown
About I&C Flexibility
Industrial and Commercial flexibility includes cold storage facilities, water treatment works, manufacturing processes, commercial HVAC systems, and behind-the-meter batteries at business premises.
Benchmarks and sense-checks
External context for interpretation (not added to totals)
Methods and limitations
Delta vs CM benchmark
Positive delta means contributor totals exceed the CM benchmark (by category). Interpret with care.
CM benchmark by category
CM coverage is strongest for I&C oriented capacity; it under-represents domestic propositions.
Contributor totals vs Capacity Market (DY 2024/25)
| Category | Contributors (MW) | CM benchmark (MW) | Delta (MW) | Delta (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Where disclosure rules apply to contributor totals, a range is shown in the tooltip rather than a point estimate.
Sources
Potential & Projections
Latent potential and future flexibility scenarios
Flexibility Trajectory
Latent Potential Methodology
Latent potential estimates the total GB flexibility if all eligible assets were actively managed. Calculated as: Average flex per managed asset × Total GB deployed assets. These are derived from public deployment data to avoid k-threshold disclosure issues.
Latent Potential by Asset Class
Based on public deployment figures from Zapmap, MCS, DESNZ, and RenewableUK.
Latent Potential Calculations
| Asset Class | Managed Sample | Avg kW/Asset | GB Deployed | Latent (GW) | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Electric Vehicles | 635,000 | 7 kW | 1.8M BEVs | 12.6 GW | Zapmap, SMMT |
| Heat Pumps | 80 | 7 kW | 250k | 1.75 GW | MCS |
| Domestic Batteries | 19,540 | 9.2 kW | ~50k | 0.46 GW | DESNZ, MCS |
| Total Latent Potential | ~15.4 GW | ||||
Future Projections
Future flexibility projections are based on NESO Future Energy Scenarios 2025 and the Clean Power 2030 Action Plan. Two scenario types are presented: (a) future deployment at today's participation rates, and (b) future if expanded to full market participation.
Flexibility Potential Trajectory
Central, high, and low scenarios based on NESO FES 2025.
2030 Flexibility by Technology
Policy Drivers
Projection Data Sources
- NESO Future Energy Scenarios 2025 - 55.2 GW (2030), 204 GW (2050)
- Clean Power 2030 Action Plan - 51-66 GW flexibility range
- CCC Seventh Carbon Budget - Heat pump trajectories
- ZEV Mandate - 80% EV sales 2030
- Latent potential: Derived from public deployment data × average impact, not contributor-specific
- Future projections: Based on NESO/government scenarios, subject to policy changes
- Participation rates: Actual participation may differ from modelled scenarios
- Technology evolution: New technologies may change flexibility landscape
Methodology & Data Coverage
How this dashboard was created
Data Collection
Data was collected from energy suppliers, aggregators, and network operators using standardised templates. Each organisation submitted information about their flexible asset portfolios and service participation.
Data Governance
To protect commercial confidentiality, all data undergoes statistical disclosure control. Values are only published when 3 or more contributors exist for that metric. This prevents identification of individual organisations.
Range Estimates
Where fewer than 3 contributors exist for a dimension, we publish range estimates instead of point values. This statistical disclosure approach (used by ONS and Eurostat) protects individual contributors while still providing useful magnitude information.
Ranges are shown in orange on charts. The bar height represents the range midpoint.
Data Quality
External Data Sources
Market context figures are drawn from publicly available sources:
- Clean Power 2030 Action Plan - DESNZ flexibility targets
- MCS Certified - Heat pump installation statistics
- GOV.UK - EV charging infrastructure statistics
- Energy Storage News - UK battery storage capacity
- NESO - Demand Flexibility Service data
Contribute Data
Want to contribute to future releases of this dashboard? Contact the ADE Data Lab team to learn how your organisation can participate.
Get in TouchDocumentation
For full methodology documentation, data templates, and technical details:
View Documentation